Tropical Storm Beryl Prompts Hurricane Watch | Weather.com (2024)

Tropical Storm Beryl is strengthening in the central Atlantic Ocean and is a hurricane threat to the Windward Islands, but then faces an uncertain future in the Caribbean Sea as we also track two other systems in a busy end of June pattern.

Current status: Tropical Storm Beryl is centered more than 900 miles east of the Windward Islands. It's moving quickly westward over the open waters of the central Atlantic Ocean.

W​indward Islands danger: The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center shown below expects Beryl to become the season's first hurricane over record warm late-June water before it moves over the Windward Islands late Sunday night or Monday with flooding rain, storm surge and damaging winds.

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Interests in the Windward islands, including Trinidad and Tobago, Barbados, Grenada, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines and Martinique should keep updated on the forecast of this storm and have their hurricane plans ready to go.

A​ hurricane watch has been issued for Barbados and additional watches and warnings are likely to be issued soon for other locations.

B​eryl's uncertain Caribbean future: Beryl will move into the eastern Caribbean Sea Monday.

We then expect it to take a general west-northwest track in the Caribbean Sea through the Fourth of July week. In general, if Beryl remains strong it may track a tad farther north in the Caribbean Sea. If it is weaker, it will tend to track farther south. This uncertainty shows up in the model forecast track map below.

O​ne reason for this uncertainty is how much wind shear Beryl will face in the Caribbean Sea. Typically this time of year, Caribbean wind shear is strong enough to weaken or completely fizzle tropical systems approaching from the east. However, some model forecasts have hinted that wind shear may be lower than usual, which could allow Beryl to survive longer than usual.

T​he bottom line: It's too soon to determine exactly where Beryl may go in the western half of the Caribbean Sea later next week. All interests around the Caribbean Sea should monitor the forecast of Beryl closely the next several days.

It's also far too soon to tell if Beryl will eventually threaten any part of the U.S. Gulf Coast. Again, check back with us at weather.com for forecast updates in the coming days.

That's not all we're watching: There are two other tropical disturbances in the Atlantic Basin, as depicted in the map below.

O​ne system in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean has a medium chance of development next week. It will remain over the open ocean until perhaps nearing the Windward Islands around the middle of next week. It could follow what may be Hurricane Beryl within a couple of days.

The other system near Mexico, Invest 94L, also has a medium chance of developing once it emerges into the Bay of Campeche or southwest Gulf of Mexico this weekend, before it glides into eastern Mexico early next week.

Heavy rain threat: Regardless of development, Invest 94L could dump locally heavy rainfall from parts of Central America to southern and eastern Mexico. Local flash flooding and landslides are possible, especially in areas of higher terrain.

Some increased swells, rip currents and coastal flooding are also possible along parts of the Mexican and Texas Gulf Coast Sunday into at least early Monday.

(Further beef up your forecast with our detailed, hour-by-hour breakdown for the next 8 days – only available on our Premium Pro experience.)

Tropical Atlantic development has happened in June as recently as last year. As senior meteorologist Chris Dolce discussed, tropical development east of the Lesser Antilles where Invest 95L is located in June is unusual, but has happened in recent years, including 2023.

L​ast June, tropical storms Bret, then Cindy, each developed well east of the Lesser Antilles in less than a week's time. It was the first time on record two tropical storms formed east of the Lesser Antilles (east of the Caribbean islands) during the month.

B​onnie first became a tropical storm in late June 2022 east of Trinidad and Tobago before it traversed the rest of the southern Caribbean Sea, then later became an eastern Pacific hurricane.

At the end of June 2021, what would later become Hurricane Elsa first became a tropical storm in almost the same location as 2022's Bonnie.

B​eryl could be an extreme outlier, though. If Beryl becomes a hurricane prior to Monday before reaching the Windward Islands, it would become only the second known hurricane to do so east of the Lesser Antilles in June.

A​ccording to WPLG TV hurricane expert Michael Lowry, only the 1933 "Trinidad & Tobago" hurricane first became a hurricane in June east of the Lesser Antilles, on June 27, 1933, according to NOAA's best track database.

T​hree years ago, Elsa narrowly missed that mark. It first became a hurricane on July 2, 2021 near Barbados.

C​heck back with us at weather.com for updates to this forecast as the details become clearer in the days ahead.

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